DPR Attempts to Predict Future of Health Care
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Between electronic medical records, green technology and increasing attention from Washington in terms of new laws and regulations, health care is becoming an ever-increasingly complicated industry. Ironically, the phrase “it’s not like this is brain surgery” does not seem to apply to the industry that actually conducts those procedures. The actual act of carrying out complicated operations is merely one facet of a very complex organism.
Recently, DPR Construction, based in Sacramento, Calif., conducted a research project where the company interviewed 42 leaders in the health care construction industry, ranging from various medical system CEOs to design and construction directors, developers and hospital consultants. The idea was to predict the future; although one of the main take-home points from the study was that there is no consensus in the industry on what exactly that future holds. The construction company gathered the responses from the series of interviews and proposed a series of 10 conclusions.
1. Hospitals will be smaller and more integrated
DPR argued that hospitals would increase their emphasis on a holistic approach to practicing medicine, with a renewed commitment to prevention and wellness. Combining this finding with a prediction that procedures will become safer and less invasive, the company proposed that hospitals would shrink because hospitalizations would become less prevalent. If patients take better care of themselves and procedures become less risky, hospitals can cut down on their expense-laden bed counts.
2. Health systems are the future
The construction firm predicts that health systems will consolidate into larger entities and “community hospitals may cease to exist.” The report also indicated that the distinctions between for-profit and not-for-profit operations would shrink over time, possibly leading not-for-profits to lose their tax-exempt status.
3. Outpatient services drive growth
The report predicts that traditional medical office building formats will be phased out and replaced by new models like medical homes and accountable care organizations. DPR says the fact that the current model will change is the clearest part of the equation. What will replace it is the million-dollar question.
4. Profitability will drive specialty areas to prominence
DPR indicated that cancer, heart and neuroscience would continue to gain relevance, especially as baby boomers begin to interact with the system more regularly and the long-predicted “wave of patients” begins to arrive.
5. IT and EMRs demand attention
The report predicted that the incredible rate of technological advancement and the even more rapid increase in demand by patients for high-tech health care will take resources away from facilities in terms of funding and change the way hospitals are designed.
6. It’s the economy, but you knew that
DPR put it lightly when they explained, “we are moving into a cash-constrained period.” The report indicated the current boom in health care construction will not last forever and will eventually fall back to earth, shrinking the gap between the rest of the design and build industries.
7. The new car smell isn’t worth the price tag
The construction company explained the economy would lead more health systems to seek out existing building with “the right bones,” as renovating a building and updating it to look like what patients expect “is much cheaper” than building new structures.
8. Green will become the standard
DPR contended that LEED certification might not be the standard yet, but health care leaders expected to have some green selling points to show off, along with energy efficiency savings. “Clients want access to data and results, specifically operational savings. They are motivated by optimization.”
9. Collaborative process is an expectation
The report explained that collaborative was becoming a buzz-word used to describe successful projects, while delivery methodologies were still split based on regions and health systems. “Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) is more used and accepted in the West than in the East and is being enthusiastically greeted from the design community.”
10. Differences in age groups are stark
The construction company explained there was a very large dividing point around the age of 45, where customer expectations diverge drastically. Additionally, the baby boomer wave will create a dual effect, where there are too many patients and too few doctors.